Based on experience as a third party candidate in UK regional election I see a lot of wishful thinking in this article. Only candidates for extremist parties take votes from one or other mainstream party, centrist candidates (which I was,) tend to pick up votes from the right wing of leftist parties or the left wing of right — leaning parties (in UK politics, Labour and Conservative respectively.)
At time of very high government unpopularity, that party’s usual voters may desert en masse to support the 3rd party candidate, so if there was an unpopular Labour or Conservative government my party, the Liberals, would get a boost but it doesn’t always work that way. When Tony Blair’s Labour government was at the height of its unpopularity after Blair took Britain into the Gulf War, both the Liberal Democrats (I ceased to be active when The Liberals merged with the Social Democrats to form a new party,) and the far right British National Party took votes from Labour because Labour had become so establishment they lost sight of the fact that the British working class by a considerable majority, are deeply conservative at heart, but had traditionally voted Labour because they perceived their interests were best served by a Labour government. So while Blair’s pro US, interventionist administration horrified the anti — war faction among Labour voters, the working class core vote in industrialised areas loathed Labour’s open borders policy and were no happier with the only slightly softer line taken by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.
The situation in the run up to the 2020 presidential election is different but there are some similarities. The big thing is that, in common with Nigel Farage, whose campaign skills swayed the EU referendum, Trump, while not in any way working class himself, knows how to talk to the working class. Joe Biden does not.
And don’t tell me about biden leading in the polls, I seem to remember all the polls predicted big wins for both Hillary Clinton and the UK Remain campaign in 2016. And we all know what happened in those votes.
If the Dems want to unseat Trump they need to forget polls and predictions based on simplistic assumptions, ditch Biden who is not only unable to talk to the working class but is showing signs that soon he will have forgotten how to talk (I watched my intelligent and articulate mother go the same way a few years ago,) and find a good candidate with solid campaign skills and an untainted track record.